Everyone says Al Marjan Island will be the next Las Vegas, Macau or Singapore. I tested that with published numbers. Disclosure first: I am a Real Estate Advisor and I sell property on the island, so weigh what I say accordingly.
Start with scale
| Destination | Visitors, 2025 |
|---|---|
| Macau | 40.06 million |
| Las Vegas | 38.5 million (down 7.5%) |
| Singapore | 16.9 million international |
| Ras Al Khaimah | 1.35 million overnight (up 6%) |
These are counted differently, so read them as scale, not as precise ratios.
The first honest point: Al Marjan Island starts from a very small base. Even the official target of more than 3.5 million visitors a year by 2030 is about 30% of what Singapore welcomed in 2010, the year its two integrated resorts opened.
The Singapore precedent
Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa opened in 2010. International arrivals that year were 11.6 million, up about 30%, then 13.2 million in 2011. But 2009 was a weak year, so part of that jump was recovery. The pattern was a step up in the first couple of years, then steadier growth, not 30% a year forever.
What transfers, and what doesn't
Transfers: the idea that the destination matters more than the gaming floor. On the Las Vegas Strip, gaming was 26.1% of revenue in the year to June 2025. Doesn't transfer: the revenue mix. Wynn expects close to 90% of Al Marjan's revenue to come from gaming, much closer to Macau than Las Vegas. Read what Wynn told investors. Also doesn't transfer: precedent. This is the UAE's first integrated resort. Nobody has local data on how demand behaves.
The number that matters most
To go from 1.35 million visitors in 2025 to 3.5 million in 2030, Ras Al Khaimah needs roughly 21% growth a year. Last year it grew 6%. The target is not an extension of the trend. It needs a step change, and the Wynn opening in September 2027 is the step change the plan is built around. That gap, 6% against 21%, is the whole thesis.
What I would watch
Whether the Wynn opens on schedule. Whether visitor growth breaks above the 6% trend in 2027 and 2028. Whether the new hotels open as planned. And whether air capacity at Ras Al Khaimah airport grows, because visitors need a way to get here.
If you are thinking of buying
Do not ask whether the thesis is right. Ask whether you could hold through a ramp that is slower than the target. Size your deposit and your handover payment so that a slower ramp does not hurt you.
Sources: RAK Tourism Development Authority; Nevada Gaming Control Board, Gaming Abstract 2025; Singapore Tourism Board; published 2025 visitor figures for Las Vegas, Macau and Singapore; Wynn Resorts investor material as reported by AGBI. Information, not financial advice.